A Framework for Managing Ocean Ecosystems Near Collapse

This study synthesizes scientific knowledge about marine ecosystem tipping points into seven practical principles for resource managers, based on evidence that explicitly addressing tipping points leads to improved management outcomes. The researchers conducted five workshops in 2013 and 2014 with subsets of the coauthors and a dozen other scientists, marine managers, stewards, and policymakers to synthesize existing theory and case studies into actionable management principles, drawing from ecological resilience theory and marine system examples. Seven key principles emerged for managing tipping points: they are possible everywhere, are linked to intense human use, may be preceded by early-warning indicators, redistribute benefits among stakeholders, affect costs of action vs inaction, suggest biologically informed targets, and require adaptive monitoring. Over half of 736 quantified stressor-response relationships in marine systems were nonlinear, indicating widespread potential for threshold effects. Early action to preserve system resilience is likely more practical, affordable, and effective than late action to halt or reverse a tipping point. Management strategies that monitor ecosystem state and identify measurable tipping points tend to be more effective in achieving conservation goals than strategies that ignore possible tipping points. The research provides a practical framework for marine managers to anticipate and respond to large ecosystem changes that can be socially, culturally, and economically costly, offering a path toward more effective conservation in an era of intensifying human impacts and climate change.

Citation

Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Blenckner, Thorsten; Caldwell, Margaret R.; Crowder, Larry B.; Erickson, Ashley L.; Essington, Timothy E.; Estes, James A.; Fujita, Rod M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hunsicker, Mary E.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kelly, Ryan P.; Kittinger, John N.; Levin, Phillip S.; Lynham, John M.; Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Mease, Lindley A.; Salomon, Anne K.; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Scarborough, Courtney; Stier, Adrian C.; White, Crow; Zedler, Joy (2015). Principles for managing marine ecosystems prone to tipping points. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability.

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