Only 3% of World's Large Predators Are Actually Recovering, Global Study Reveals

Our global analysis of 362 large carnivore species reveals that fewer than 10% of populations are increasing, with only 12 species showing genuine improvement in extinction risk status. We compiled a database of large carnivores across all vertebrate groups, analyzing IUCN extinction risk status and population trends to identify which conservation actions were linked to recoveries versus ongoing declines.

Rather than focusing on failures, we searched for bright spots that might teach how to replicate recoveries elsewhere. We found that marine mammals emerged as clear winners, showing higher than expected numbers of species with both increasing population trends and genuine status improvements. Humpback whales and Steller sea lions exemplify these dramatic turnarounds. But sharks and rays tell the opposite story—61% of species are threatened, with only 17% occupying the lowest extinction risk category. Terrestrial mammals also fare poorly, with fully half listed as threatened. We identified just one terrestrial mammal recovery: the Iberian lynx.

Our analysis revealed striking geographic patterns. The Nearctic region showed significantly higher recovery rates than other regions, while many species in the Afrotropic and Indo-Malay regions continue declining. Our statistical models revealed that recovery was associated with species legislation at national and international levels, and with harvest management plans that reduce uncontrolled exploitation.

"Our analysis revealed striking geographic patterns."

Our findings suggest that the handful of large carnivore recoveries we documented aren't accidents—they're the result of specific, intensive interventions. The challenge now is scaling these strategies globally while addressing the primary threats: habitat modification and human-wildlife conflict. With 38% of large carnivore species currently threatened with extinction, applying these lessons becomes increasingly urgent.

Citation

Ingeman, Kurt E.; Zhao, Lily Z.; Wolf, Christopher; Williams, David R.; Ritger, Amelia L.; Ripple, William J.; Kopecky, Kai L.; Dillon, Erin M.; DiFiore, Bartholomew P.; Curtis, Joseph S.; Csik, Samantha R.; Bui, An; Stier, Adrian C. (2022). Glimmers of hope in large carnivore recoveries. Scientific Reports.

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